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중국에게 세계 지배를 빼앗기지 않으려는 미국! 이제 본격적으로 미국과 중국의 세계 패권 다툼이 벌어지려고 한다.환율전쟁에 미국이 이기면 중국의 세계지배는 불가능 한것이 아니라 ,다소 몇년 늦어질 뿐이다.미국의 위원화 환율절상 압력이 성공을 거두어 중국이 이에 굴복을하여 단기간내에 중국위원화를 대폭절상 할 경우에는,

 

중국의 수출 증가율이 감소되어 중국 경제 성장율이 감소되어 중국의 세계지배는 늦어져서 중국이 세계를 지배 할시기가 5년쯤 더 늦어져서 15년쯤 후가 될 가능성이 높다. 그렇지 않고 미국의 압력이 실패를 할 경우에는 향후 6~7년 후에는 중국의 GDP가 미국을 제치고 세계 1위가 되어 10년 후부터는 중국이 세계를 지배 할 것이다.

 

가까운 세월내에 중국의 세계 지배는 도저히 막을 수가 없는 일이다. 중국은 일본이나 독일처럼 국내 내수 시장이 좁은 나라가 아니다. 미국이 중국을 아무리 견제하려고하거나 환율 전쟁을 벌려도 우여곡절과시간적 차이만 있을 뿐,중국은 일본보다 인구가 열배나 많고 독일보다는 열다섯배나 많아 향후 국내 내수 시장이 일본의 열배 독일의 열다섯배까지 커지게 될 것이므로 중국의 세계 지배는 오래지 않아 실현될 것이다.이것이 강대국의 흥망성쇄이다.

 

청나라가 흥해봐야 오랑캐는 오랑캐 일뿐 명나라를 이길 수가 없다!는 조선의 거의 모든 대신들의 예상은 빗나갔었다. 앞으로 40년 안에는 미국이 계속 세계를 지배 할 것이라고 예상했던 일본의 고이즈미 수상의 2005년도 예상은 아주 빗나갔다. 당시 일본 경제력의 절반도 채 안되었던 중국에게 지난 9월 23일 일본은 중국의 국력에 밀려서 치욕적인 항복을 했다.

 

앞으로도 계속 일본 정부와 한국 정부와 미국 정부와 세계 모든 나라 정부의 예상을 뒤 엎고, 빠른 시일내에 세계 지배는 미국에서 중국으로 넘어 가게 될 것이다.

 

이는 향후 40년 안에는 계속 미국이 세계를 지배 할 것이라고 주장하며 친중 정책을 쓰려는 노무현 정부를 2003년과 2004년 비난하던 조선일보의 예상도 아주 빗나가게되는 것이다.

 

 

 

 

中 "獨(70년대)·日(80년대)·한국(90년대)처럼

 

안될 것"… 美 "大國답게 행동하라"

  • 베이징=최유식 특파원 finder@chosun.com 기자의 다른 기사보기
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    입력 : 2010.10.08 03:02

    "위안화 절상 제대로 하라" "못한다"… 환율전쟁 폭발직전

    독일·일본·한국이 美 압력에 밀려 통화절상 단행한 뒤 경제충격 받지 않았나

    위안화 대폭 절상땐 수출 큰 타격받아 中 기업들 대거 파산 세계 경제도 위기 온다


    원자바오(溫家寶) 중국 총리는 6일(현지시각) 중·유럽 비즈니스 정상회의 연설에서 유럽연합(EU)에 두 가지 메시지를 던졌다. "EU가 중국에 대한 미국의 위안화 절상(切上) 압박에 동참하지 말아달라"는 것과 "위안화를 급격히 절상하지 않을 것"이라는 점이다.

    중국은 미국 의회 주장대로 위안화를 단기간에 20~40%씩 절상하면 중국 성장의 30~40%를 담당하고 있는 수출이 큰 타격을 받을 것으로 보고 있다. 수출산업에 종사하는 수천만명의 농민공(도시 이주 농민)이 일자리를 잃으면서 감당하기 힘든 사회 혼란이 일어날 것이라는 우려도 적잖다. 중국 학계에서는 1970년대 독일, 1980년대의 일본과 1990년대 한국이 미국의 압박에 밀려 통화 절상을 단행한 뒤 받은 경제적 충격을 실제 사례로 들고 있다.

    6일 브뤼셀에서 열린 중·EU 정상회담에서 원자바오(溫家寶) 중국 총리가 연설하고 있다. 중국과 EU는 국제사회의 핵심 현안으로 부상한 위안화 절상 등 주요 쟁점에 대한 절충을 시도했지만 합의점을 찾는데 실패했다. /AP 연합뉴스
    중국은 지난 5월 베이징에서 열린 미·중 전략경제대화(SAED)에서도 이 점을 집중적으로 설득했다고 한다. 중국은 대신 '글로벌 무역 불균형(global imbalance)' 해소 방안으로 연간 3% 내외의 점진적인 위안화 절상과 미국 제품 구매 확대 등을 제시한 것으로 전해졌다.

    베이징 외교가에서는 원 총리가 이날 "위안화의 급격한 절상이 전 세계에 재앙이 될 것"이라고 극언을 한 데 대해 미국을 향해 던진 '경고'라는 분석도 나온다. 원 총리가 지난달 하순 뉴욕 유엔 총회에 참석했을 당시 미국이 국제사회가 지켜보는 가운데, 공개리에 위안화 절상 문제로 망신을 준 데 대한 불쾌감이 작용했다는 것이다.

    베이징 외교가 소식통은 "당시 오바마 정부 고관들이 앞다퉈 위안화 절상 문제를 제기했고, 오바마 대통령은 1시간 50분 동안 원 총리를 만난 자리에서 1시간 30분이나 이 문제를 거론했다"면서 "중국 관가에서 '아무리 중간선거를 앞두고 있다지만 해도 너무한 것 아니냐'는 말이 나온다"고 말했다.


    세계 무역 불균형은 크게 저평가된 통화를 인위적으로 유지하는 신흥시장이 주범

    세계 2위 경제대국인 중국이 솔선수범 않고 버티고 있기 때문에 다른 나라도 말 안들어


    미국은 G20 정상회의를 앞두고 갈수록 가열되는 환율 마찰에서 중국이 솔선수범하라는 압력을 늦추지 않고 있다. 중국이 버티고 있기 때문에 다른 나라들까지 통화절상 움직임에 브레이크를 건다는 것이다. 티머시 가이트너(Geithner) 재무장관은 최근 중국의 위안화로 인해 발생하는 전 세계의 '환율전쟁'에 대해 또다시 미국의 분명한 입장을 밝혔다.

    티머시 가이트너 미국 재무장관이 6일 브루킹스연구소에서 가진 연설에서“통화가치가 현저하게 저평가돼 있는 국가들의 통화 절상이 매우 중요하다”며 중국의 위안화 절상을 재차 촉구했다. /AP 연합뉴스
    가이트너 장관은 6일 브루킹스연구소에서의 연설을 통해 "외환시장의 문제는 통화가 저평가됐음에도 절상에 저항하는 신흥시장"이라고 말했다. 그는 저평가된 통화를 가진 나라들이 조치를 취하지 않으면 "신흥시장에 인플레이션과 자산의 '거품'화 현상을 일으키거나 소비성장이 저하될 것"이라고 경고했다.

    가이트너 장관은 이날 자신이 언급하는 국가가 일본이 아니라고 말함으로써 중국을 겨냥했음을 시사했다. "현저하게 저평가된 통화를 가진 나라들의 조치가 특히 중요하다"는 말로 즉각 중국 당국이 위안화 절상에 나설 것을 촉구했다.

    가이트너 장관의 이날 발언은 이번 주 시작된 국제통화기금(IMF)과 세계은행(WB) 연차총회를 앞두고 미국의 입장을 재차 명확히 한 것으로 해석된다. 미국은 가이트너 장관이 밝힌 대로 위안화 문제가 미국은 물론 세계 경제가 직면하고 있는 매우 심각한 문제라는 인식을 갖고 있다. 중국이 이미 일본을 능가하는 세계 제2위의 경제대국이 됐음에도 환율을 인위적으로 제어함으로써 무역 수지 불균형이 심화되고 있다고 보고 있다. 일각에서는 위안화가 최대 40% 평가절하돼 있다는 주장도 나오고 있다.

    만성적인 무역적자에 심각한 경제위기에 직면해 있는 미국은 이번 IMF·세계은행 연차총회는 물론 다음 달 서울 G20 회의에서도 환율 문제를 집중적으로 제기한다는 입장이다.

    중국(中國)이 부흥하면 세계는 더 평등해진다고?
    [천자토론] 한국 경제, 세계 '환율 전쟁'에 어떻게 대응하나
    인포그래픽스 [InfoGraphics] 주요지표로 본 세계랭킹

    중문으로 이 기사 읽기중문으로 이 기사 읽기

미국의 노르웨이를 통한 중국에 압력 넣기

 

노벨 평화상 수상, 슈퍼파워 중국 견제용?

2010-10-08 20:20

 

올해 노벨 평화상 수상자로 중국의 반체제 인사인 류샤오보(劉曉波.55)가 8일 선정되면서 국제 관계에 미묘한 파장이 일고 있다. 중국은 자국인이 세계 최고 권위의 상을 수상하게 됐음에도 속이 결코 편치 않다. 류샤오보가 대표적 반체제 인사이기 때문이다. 최근 환율전쟁에서 보듯, 미국 등과 일전불사의 자세를 보이고 있는 중국의 대응에 따라 국제 관계에 일대 파란을 몰고 올 수도 있다.

▶노벨평화상 수상 왜?

노르웨이 노벨위원회가 발표한 선정 이유는 류샤오보가 중국의 인권신장을 위해 오랫동안 투쟁했다는 점. 그가 중국 정부에 맞서 민주화 운동을 한 공을 높이 산 것이다.

실제 류샤오보는 1989년 톈안먼(天安門) 민주화 운동 당시 방문학자로 있던 미국 컬럼비아대에서 급거 귀국, 단식투쟁을 이끌다 수감된 것을 시작으로 고난으로 점철된 민주화 운동의 길을 걸었다. 톈안먼 민주화 운동은 중국 정부가 여전히 아킬레스건처럼 여기는 상황이다.

류샤오보는 2008년 12월 세계인권선언 채택 60주년을 맞아 민주화 요구를 담은 ‘08헌장(Charter 08)’ 발표를 주도하고 그 때문에 긴 옥살이에 들어가면서 세계적으로 주목받는 인물이 됐다.

언론 자유 보장, 인권 개선, 자유선거 등을 요구하는 ‘08 헌장’이 발표되기 이틀 전인 2008년 12월8일 전격 체포된 그는 이듬해 12월10일 체제전복을 선동한 혐의로 기소됐다. 그로부터 보름이 지난 12월25일 류샤오보는 베이징 제1중급인민법원에서 징역 11년형을 선고받았고, 현재 수감생활을 하고 있다.

당황한 중국

문제는 바로 여기서 출발한다. 중국은 그동안 반체제, 민주화 운동 인사에 대한 외국의 개입에 대해 극도로 민감한 반응을 보여왔다.

대표적인 것이 지난 2월 티베트의 정신적 지도자인 달라이 라마와 버락 오바마 미국 대통령과의 면담. 중국은 오바마 대통령이 달라이 라마와의 면담을 발표하자 "미국과 중국과의 관계가 더욱 악화되는 것을 막기 위해 미국은 잘못된 결정을 취소하라"고 강력 요구한 바 있다. 

이번 노벨평화상 수상 선정과 관련 중국 정부는 8일 "반체제 운동가인  류샤오보(劉曉波.55)는 죄인이라면서 그의 노벨 평화상 수상은 노벨상 취지에 배치되는 일이며 중국과 노르웨이의 관계에 악영향을 줄 수 있다"고 밝혔다. 

 마자오쉬(馬朝旭) 중국 외교부 대변인은 외교부 홈페이지에 올린 ‘기자와의  문답’에서 "노벨 평화상은 민족의 화해를 촉진하고, 각국의 우의를 증진시키며,  군축을 추진하고, 평화회담을 개최 및 선전하기 위해 노력한 인물에게 수여되어야  한다는 것이 노벨의 유지"라고 밝혔다.
    
마 대변인은 이어 "류샤오보는 중국 법률을 위반, 중국 사법기관에 의해 형을 선고받은 죄인이며 그의 소행은 노벨 평화상의 취지와 배치된다"고 주장했다. 
    
그는 또 노르웨이와의 관계에 미칠 영향에 대해 "근래 중국과 노르웨이의  관계는 계속 긍정적으로 발전해 왔으며, 이는 양국과 양국민의 이익에 도움이 된다"고  밝힌 뒤 "노벨위원회가 류샤오보에게 노벨 평화상을 준 것은 중국과 노르웨이의  관계에 손실을 가져올 수 있을 것"이라고 부연했다.

이번 노벨평화상 수상을 한국 상황에 대입하면, 고 박정희 대통령 집권 시절에 김대중 전 대통령에게 노벨 평화상을 주는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 중국의 마음이 결코 편할리 없는 것이다.

▶‘백인의 우월의식’, 서방의 중국 견제심리가 작용했나?

일각에서는 서방세계의 중국 견제라는 음모론적 분석도 나온다.

중국은 막강한 외환보유액, 경제력, 군사력 등을 무기로 세계 1위 강국인 미국과 정면 대결을 벌이고 있다. 최근 미국과의 환율 전쟁이 대표적인 사례. 중국은 위안화 평가절상을 요구하는 미국에 대해 강력한 어조에 실천력까지 곁들이며 건건이 맞대응을 하고 있다.

최근 선장 구금 사태로 인해 발생한 일본과의 영토분쟁에서도 강경책으로 사실상 일본의 항복을 받아냈다. 사실상 ‘브레이크 없는 벤츠’를 몰고 새로운 국제질서를 전 세계에 강요하고 있는 형국이다.

이번 노벨평화상 수상자 선정에 서방세계의 중국 견제심리가 작용한 것이 아니냐는 분석이 나오는 것도 바로 이 때문이다.

▶주목되는 중국의 대응

현재 가장 주목되는 것은 중국의 대응이다. 중국이 이번 수상을 어떻게 평가하고 어떤 방식으로 대응하느냐에 따라 국제 관계가 요동칠 수 있기 때문이다.

전문가들은 일단 중국이 극한 선택까지는 하지 않을 것으로 보고 있다. 노벨평화상 수상에 대해 강력한 유감의 뜻을 표하겠지만, 선언적 제스쳐에 그칠 가능성이 있다고 보고 있다. 중국이 슈퍼파워로 부상한 만큼 그에 걸맞게 국제 사회의 룰로 존중해야는 부담도 안고 있기 때문이다.

일부 전문가들은 중국 정부가 이번 노벨평화상 수상을 계기로 민주화 운동 등에 대해 한층 전향적인 정책을 내놓아야 한다는 주장도 나온다. 중국의 반응이 유독 주목되는 대목이다.

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List of Articles
번호 제목 글쓴이 날짜 조회 수
1169 가을 [4] 차우 2010-10-27 27457
1168 환율 중재안 내 놓는다며 미국편 들다가 중국의 분노사서 국익에 손해만 끼칠 가능성이 높은 이명박!! [9] 주제파악 2010-10-24 2012
1167 한나라당과 민주당은 지역 기반만 다를 뿐 같은 정당.FTA는 핑계일 뿐. [2] 동색 2010-10-22 1895
1166 자격증 취득 지금 준비하세요 [2] 장학수 2010-10-20 1911
1165 뻔뻔스런 사회 지도층들 [3] 뻔대들 2010-10-15 1860
1164 취직이 힘든 사회 [1] 취직 2010-10-13 1990
1163 정력도 좋은 황장엽, 북한에서 공금 착복 후 탈출한 듯 [7] 정력가 2010-10-11 2302
1162 중국도 유통업 만큼은 한국따라 하지마라 13억대륙에 엄청난 실업자가 발생한다. [3] 대량실업 2010-10-11 1864
1161 군사비 증액을 위해 해마다 북한의 군사력을 뻥튀기하는 국방부 [4] 뻥치기 2010-10-10 2016
1160 한국사회의 악의 축으로 성장하고 있는 유일신을 믿는 기독교!! 이슬람교와 똑 같다. [5] 기독교 2010-10-09 2062
» 중국에 세계 지배를 빼앗기지 않으려고 전방위 압력을 행사하는 미국, 과연 성공 할까? [5] 흥망성쇄 2010-10-08 2071
1158 도움이 되었으면 합니다. file [4] 오시원 2010-10-06 1841
1157 천안함 발표 0.0001%도 믿을수 없다" 도올 김용옥 무혐의 [5] 도울 2010-09-27 1791
1156 대학입학과 편입학시 온갖 비리를 저지러고 있는 대학 [9] 입시비리 2010-09-25 2079
1155 뇌물 챙기기 좋은 토목공사는 많이하면서,정규직 채용은 예산이 부족하다며 줄인다. [4] 뇌물 2010-09-24 1818
1154 허울좋은 청계천,, 광화문 물바다 [4] 2010-09-24 1840
1153 "부귀영화 누리려면 변호사 하겠지만..." [4] 부귀영화 2010-09-23 2005
1152 어느 사기꾼의 거짓말 토크쇼 [4] 토크쇼 2010-09-21 2133
1151 연극과 함께하는 국악관현악 여행 공연에 동문 여러분을 초대합니다. file [3] 우덕상 2010-09-09 2004
1150 변검과 함께하는 창작국악관현악 공연에 초대합니다. file [3] 우덕상 2010-09-09 2043