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미국이 위안화 절상에 집착하는 진짜 이유

조회 수 5012 추천 수 0 2011.10.13 11:51:38

 

미국이 위안화 절상에 집착하는 진짜 이유

 

[차이나 워치]환율-무역전쟁은 경제패권 싸움의 전초전

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미국 상원이 11일(현지시간), 이른바 ‘위안화 절상압박 환율법(2100 환율감독 개혁법)’을 표결에 붙여 63대 35로 통과시켰다. 버락 오바마 미 대통령의 비토가 예상돼 법제화에는 의문이나 지난해 유사 법안을 통과시킨 바 있는 하원도 법안을 통과할 가능성이 커 미-중간 환율갈등이 한층 달아오를 전망이다.

위안화 환율은 지난 11일 현재 달러당 6.3483위안. 중국이 2005년7월, 바스켓환율제도를 도입한 뒤 6년3개월 만에 최저(위안화 가치 최고)다. 올 들어 이미 4.13% 올랐으며, 2005년7월 이후엔 30.27%나 절상됐다. 중국이 위안화가 ‘단계적으로’ ‘충분히’ 절상되고 있다고 주장하고 있는 이유다.

하지만 미국은 이에 만족하지 않고 있다. 미국 상원이 ‘국제 조약 및 의무에 해를 끼칠 수 있다’는 국내외 비판에도 불구하고 ‘위안화 절상압박 환율법’을 통과시킬 정도다. 미국이 위안화 절상에 이처럼 집착하는 이유는 무엇일까.

중국사회과학원 세계경제정치연구소의 리쫑민(李衆敏) 부연구위원은 “미국이 위안화 절상에 집착하는 것은 중국의 임금을 인상시켜 산업 경쟁력을 약화시키기 위한 것”이라는 분석을 제시했다. “미국도 위안화 절상으로 미국의 무역수지를 줄일 수 없다는 것을 안다. 무역수지 개선을 위해 위안화를 절상해야 한다고 하는 것의 진짜 노림수는 중국 산업경쟁력 약화”라는 설명이다.

이는 1985년9월, 플라자협정 이후 일본 사례에서 확인할 수 있다는 게 리 연구원의 분석이다. 일본 엔화는 플라자협정 이후 달러당 250엔 수준에서 125엔 수준으로 급격히 2배 정도 절상됐다. 하지만 미국의 대일 무역적자는 거의 줄어들지 않았다. 엔화가 절상되면 미국의 무역적자가 줄어들 것이라는 예측과 기대는 완전히 틀렸다.

그런데도 일본은 1990년대부터 ‘잃어버린 10년’을 지나 ‘잃어버린 20년’에 시달리고 있다. 이유는 바로 엔화 절상에 따른 임금 인상과 그에 따른 산업 경쟁력 약화였다. 일본 근로자의 주당 평균임금은 1980년에 224달러로 미국(261.5달러)보다 14.3% 낮았다. 하지만 1986년에 일본은 362.6달러로 미국(358.5달러)를 사상 처음으로 앞질렀다. 플라자협정 이후 불과 1년 만에 양국의 임금수준이 역전된 것이다. 이후 양국의 임금격차는 더욱 벌어져 2000년에 일본의 임금은 미국보다 37.7%나 높아졌다. 임금 상승으로 경쟁력이 떨어진 일본 기업들은 중국 일본 태국 등 아시아 지역으로 생산 근거지를 옮길 수밖에 없었고, 일본 경제의 성장잠재력은 약화돼 갔다.

미국이 위안화 절상에도 미국의 대중 무역적자가 줄어들지 않을 것이라는 사실을 잘 알고 있음에도 위안화 절상 압력 고삐를 늦추지 않는 것은 바로 중국의 임금 인상과 산업 경쟁력 약화를 통해 중장기적으로 미국 무역수지 및 경제에 긍정적 효과를 가져오기 위한 것이다.

중국의 현재 산업경쟁력은 플라자협정 당시의 일본 산업경쟁력에 비해 현저히 낮다. 따라서 개혁개방 이후 저임금을 바탕으로 ‘세계의 공장’ 역할을 하며 성장해온 중국 경제는 임금이 오를 경우 경쟁력이 급격히 약화될 가능성이 높다. 미국발 글로벌 금융위기 기간인 2008~2009년 중에 동결됐던 중국의 근로자 임금은 2010년과 올해 각각 20% 정도 상승했다. 이같은 임금 인상으로 중소기업이 밀집돼 있는 저장(浙江)성 원저우(溫州)시 등에선 무더기 도산이 우려되고 있는 상황이다.

중국 정부는 한발 나아가 임금을 2015년까지 2010년보다 2배로 끌어올린다고 밝히고 있다. 여기에 위안화 절상이 가세될 경우 임금 상승속도는 더욱 빨라질 수 있다. 임금 상승은 내수를 확대시켜 ‘수출의존의 양적성장 경제’를 ‘내수 중심의 질적 발전 경제’로 한 단계 업그레이드하는 데 도움이 될 수 있다.

하지만 구조조정은 시간이 많이 걸리고, 적응하지 못하는 기업의 대규모 파산 같은 ‘적응 비용’이 들게 마련이다. 중국은 수출에서 벌어들이는 외화로 그런 적응 비용을 충당해야 구조조정을 원활하게 이룰 수 있다.

‘중국의 속도’로 위안화를 절상시켜 성공적 구조조정을 위한 ‘시간과 외환을 벌겠다’는 게 중국의 전략이라면, 중국이 구조조정에 성공한다면 미국의 패권을 위협할 정도로 대국이 될 것이 분명하니깐 그 전에 ‘구조조정 비용을 최대화시키겠다’는 게 미국의 전략이다.

미국 상원이 ‘위안화 절상압박 환율법’을 통과시켰고, 중국은 ‘무역전쟁을 야기할 것’이라고 비판하고 있다. 세계 최대의 경제대국인 미국과 일본을 제치고 2대 경제대국으로 부상한 중국. G1과 G2가 ‘환율법’을 놓고 신경전과 성명전을 벌이고 있는 것은, 결국 세계경제패권을 놓치지 않으려는 수성(守成)과 차지하겠다는 공성(攻城)의 치열한 한판 승부의 전초전이라고 할 수 있다.
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